In this second blog in the ‘Views on 2020’ series from Refinitiv, as China’s economy enters 2020 with the focus still on the U.S. trade dispute, slowing growth, and continued Belt and Road expansion, Nicole Chen, Managing Director of China, presents five trends for the year ahead.
Key takeaways
- Analyzing China’s economy and market performance in 2019 was made more challenging by factors including the U.S. trade dispute and social unrest in Hong Kong.
- China’s economy in 2020 is still expected to outperform U.S. growth, albeit at a slower rate than the heady levels seen in previous years.
- Refinitiv’s commitment to delivering robust and complete China market data in 2019 included the launch of our China Price Discovery and BRI Connect apps.
The ongoing China-U.S. trade dispute, expansion via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), social unrest in Hong Kong, and slowing growth make analyzing China’s economy a multi-faceted undertaking in 2019.
The key challenge for investors has historically centered on a lack of reliable data with the breadth and depth to support sound analysis.
Making informed decisions depends on comprehensive, reliable information, which is why additional data sets and new apps from Refinitiv can highlight the opportunities and risks presented by the region.
During 2019, some of the key themes that have played out in China markets have included:
China’s slowing economy
The dramatic growth of China’s economy over the last decade has been followed by a marked slowdown. Research suggests that growth may have been slowing as far back as November 2017, although foreign direct investment has shown no sign of abating.
Ministry of Commerce figures reveal that foreign direct investment in China expanded by 7.3 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2019, with July showing an increase of 8.7 percent.
And while the economic slowdown has been significant in terms of year-on-year growth, in real terms China is still outperforming many of its global counterparts.
This is an except of the original blog article published on Refinitiv Perspectives. Continue reading the rest of the article here.
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